Assessing Malaysia’s Business Cycle indicators

An empirical assessment shows that Malaysia’s business cycle indicators can be improved. Turning point detection is not impressive, especially for troughs. Lead times are also variable. However, the relationship between the leading and coincident indicators over the entire cycle shows quite strong correlations from the late 1980s onwards, although lead times have shortened. Empirical evidence is very strong that the leading index Granger-causes the coincident index. Business and consumer confidence surveys also show much promise in improving prediction of the reference cycle. However, implications of the changing economic structure on the performance of the leading index needs to be fully taken into account, especially the emergence of new services sector activities.Business/growth cycle, Malaysian economy, growth cycle chronology, turning point analysis, Granger causality

Turnover, Ownership and Productivity in Malaysian Manufacturing

Applying Foster, Haltiwanger and Krizan‟s (1998) decomposition of productivity growth method to Malaysian manufacturing census data for 2000 and 2005, we analyse if firm turnover by ownership (domestic versus foreign) has any impact on the sector‟s aggregate productivity growth. The findings show that turnover matters regardless of ownership but, more importantly, attracting foreign direct investment inflows could induce positive „net entry effect‟. The manufacturing sector‟s heavy dependence on FDI is underscored by the significant contribution of large MNCs to export value. Foreign entrants also have an important positive impact on sector productivity. The analysis shows that large-sized foreign and domestic entrants are more productive than medium-sized and especially small-sized ones. Among survivors, large foreign and domestic establishments fare the worst. Mediumsized domestic survivors, on the other hand, contribute the most to boosting sector productivity. The study demonstrates the usefulness of such an analytical framework by drawing out important implications for state industrial policies based on ownership and firm size.Ownership, firm turnover; productivity; manufacturing; Malaysia

Does Exporter Turnover Contribute to Aggregate Productivity Growth? Evidence from Malaysian Manufacturing.

Malaysia’s economic success is to a significant extent underpinned by its export-oriented manufacturing sector. The sector has a large foreign presence, with MNCs attracted by the open trade and investment regime, and FDI-friendly policies. Using unpublished manufacturing census data for 2000 and 2005, we apply the methodology by Foster et al. (1998) to decompose productivity growth. The analysis shows that exporters were more productive than domestic-oriented establishments, and were distinctly more competitive. The empirical evidence also shows that establishment turnover is important in boosting productivity growth. In particular, we find that turnover of exporters made a larger contribution to aggregate productivity growth compared to domestic-oriented establishments during the period from 2000 to 2005. Surviving establishments (those that operated in both years), on the other hand, made a negative contribution. It is noteworthy that entrants to export markets were more productive than surviving non-exporters and even surviving exporters. Exiters from export markets or “export failuresâ€, on the other hand, were less productive than continuing exporters. Given the importance of turnover to productivity growth, the government should ensure unrestricted entry to the export sectors for both foreign and domestic investors. Continuing with pro-FDI policies is also important, given the keener global competition.Exporting; plant turnover; productivity; manufacturing; Malaysia